Journal articles   |   Book chapters   |   Technical reports

Journal articles

  |  2019   |  2018   |  2017   |  2016   |  2015   |  2014   |  2013   |  2012   |  2011   |  2010   |  2009   |  2008   |  2007   |  2006   |  2005


What is the impact of a 20% funding cut in international HIV aid from the United States?

D. ten Brink, R. Martin-Hughes, S.L. Kelly, D.P. Wilson (2019)

AIDS, 33(8):1408-1408 [PDF]

Applying the 'no-one worse off' criterion to design Pareto efficient HIV responses in Sudan and Togo

R.M. Stuart, H. Haghparast-Bidgoli, J. Panovska-Griffiths, L. Grobicki, J. Skordis, C.C. Kerr, D.J. Kedziora, R. Martin-Hughes, S.L. Kelly, D.P. Wilson (2019)

AIDS, 33(7):1247-1252[PDF]


A tale of two countries: Progress towards UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets in Botswana and Australia

T. Marukutira, M. Stoové, S. Lockman, L.A. Mills, T. Gaolathe, R. Lebelonyane, J.N. Jarvis, S.L. Kelly, D.P. Wilson, S. Luchters, S.M. Crowe, M. Hellard (2018)

J Int AIDS Society, 21:e25190 [PDF]

Achieving 90-90-90 Human Immunodeficiency (HIV) targets will not be enough to achieve the HIV incidence reduction target in Australia

N. Scott, M. Stoové, S.L. Kelly, D.P. Wilson, M.E. Hellard (2018)

Clin Infect Dis, 66(7):1019-1023 [PDF]

Optima attempts to objectively and pragmatically assist countries meet their targets most efficiently and effectively

D.P. Wilson, M. Gorgens, D.J. Wilson. (2018)

J Int AIDS Society, 21:e25190 [PDF]

Cost and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Two Hospitals of Thailand

C. Suraratdecha, R. Stuart, C. Manopaiboon, D. Green, C. Lertpiriyasuwat, D. Wilson, P. Pavaputanon, P. Visavakum, P. Monkongdee, T. Khawcharoenporn, P. Tharee, C. Kittinunvorakoon, M. Martin. (2018)

J Int AIDS Society, 21:e25129 [PDF]

Optima Nutrition: an allocative efficiency tool to reduce childhood stunting by better targeting of nutrition-related interventions

R. Pearson, M. Killedar, J. Petravic, J.J Kakietek, N. Scott, K.L. Grantham, R.M. Stuart, D.J. Kedziora, C. Kerr, J. Skordis-Worrall, M. Shekar, D.P. Wilson. (2018)

BMC Public Health, 18(1):384 [PDF]

How should HIV resources be allocated? Lessons learnt from applying Optima HIV in 23 countries

R.M. Stuart, L. Grobicki, H. Haghparast-Bidgoli, J. Skordis-Worrall, O. Keiser, J. Estill, Z. Baranczuk, J. Panovska-Griffiths, S.L. Kelly, I. Reporter, D.J. Kedziora, A.J. Shattock, J. Petravic, S.A. Hussain, K.L. Grantham, R.T. Gray, X.F. Yap, R. Martin-Hughes, C.J. Benedikt, N. Fraser-Hurt, E. Masaki, D.J. Wilson, M. Gorgens, E. Mziray, N. Cheikh, Z. Shubber, C.C. Kerr, D.P. Wilson. (2018)

J Int AIDS Society, 21:e25097 [PDF]

The global Optima HIV allocative efficiency model: targeting resources in efforts to end AIDS

S.L. Kelly, R. Martin-Hughes, R.M Stuart, X.F. Yap, D.J. Kedziora, K.L. Grantham, S.A. Hussain, I. Reporter, A.J. Shattock, L. Grobicki, H. Haghparast-Bidgoli, J. Skordis-Worrall, Z. Baranczuk, O. Keiser, J. Estill, J. Petravic, R.T. Gray, C.J. Benedikt, N. Fraser, M. Gorgens, D. Wilson, C.C. Kerr, D.P. Wilson. (2018)

Lancet HIV, 5(4):e190-e198 [PDF]

Optimization by Adaptive Stochastic Descent

C.C. Kerr, S. Dura-Bernal, T.G. Smolinski, G.L. Chadderdon, D.P. Wilson. (2018)

PLoS One13(3), e0192944 [PDF]

The City of Johannesburg can end AIDS by 2030: modeling the impact of achieving the fast-track targets and what it will take to get there

R.M. Stuart, N. Fraser-Hurt, C.C. Kerr, E. Mabusela, V. Madi, F. Mkhwanazi, Y. Pillay, P. Barron, B. Muzah, T. Matsebula, M. Gorgens, D.P. Wilson. (2018).

J Int AIDS Society, 21:e25068 [PDF]


Getting it right when budgets are tight: using optimal expansion pathways to prioritize responses to concentrated and mixed HIV epidemics

R.M. Stuart, C.C. Kerr, H. Haghparast-Bidgoli, J. Estill, L. Grobicki, Z. Baranczuk, L. Prieto, V. Montañez, I. Reporter, R.T. Gray, J. Skordis-Worrall, O. Keiser, N. Cheikh, K. Boonto, S. Osornprasop, F. Lavadenz, C.J. Benedikt, R. Martin-Hughes, A. Hussain, S.L. Kelly, D.J. Kedziora, D.P. Wilson. (2017)

PLoS One, 12(10):e0185077 [PDF]

Maximizing the impact of malaria funding through allocative efficiency: using the right interventions in the right locations

N. Scott, S.A. Hussain, R. Martin-Hughes, F.J.I. Fowkes, C.C. Kerr, R. Pearson, D.J. Kedziora, M. Killedar, R.M. Stuart, D.P. Wilson. (2017)

Malaria Journal, 16:368 [PDF]

Acute HIV infection detection and immediate treatment estimated to reduce transmission by 89% among men who have sex with men in Bangkok

E.D.M.B. Kroon, N. Phanuphak, A.J. Shattock, J.L.K. Fletcher, S. Pinyakorn, N. Chomchey, S. Akapirat, M.S. de Souza, M.L. Robb, J.H. Kim, F. van Griensven, J. Ananworanich, D.P. Wilson on behalf of the RV254/SEARCH 010 Study Group. (2017)

J Int AIDS Society, 20:21708 [PDF]


Kazakhstan can achieve ambitious HIV targets by combining improved ART procurement mechanisms with allocative and implementation efficiencies

A.J. Shattock, C. Benedikt, A. Bokazhanova, P. Đurić, I. Petrenko, L. Ganina, S.L. Kelly, R.M. Stuart, C.C. Kerr, T. Vinichenko, S. Zhang, C. Hamelmann, M. Manova, E. Masaki, D.P. Wilson, R.T. Gray. (2016)

PLoS One, 12(2) [PDF]

Allocative and implementation efficiency in HIV prevention and treatment for people who inject drugs

C. Benedikt, S.L. Kelly, D. Wilson, D.P. Wilson on behalf of the Optima Consortium. (2016)

Int J Drug Policy, 38:73-80 [PDF]

GBD 2015 and HIV estimates from the Optima model

S. Kelly, D.P. Wilson. (2016)

The Lancet HIV, 3(12):e558 [PDF]

Optimizing HIV/AIDS resources in Armenia: increasing ART investment and examining HIV programs for seasonal migrant laborers.

S.L. Kelly, A.J. Shattock, C.C. Kerr, R.M. Stuart, A. Papoyan, T. Grigoryan, R. Hovhannisyan, S. Grigoryan, C. Benedikt, D.P. Wilson. (2016).

J Int AIDS Society, 19:20772 [PDF]

A no-brainer for ending AIDS: the case for a harm reduction decade

Cook C, Lines R, Wilson DP (2016)

J Int AIDS Society, 19:21129 [PDF]

Local responses to local epidemics for national impact need advanced spatially-explicit tools

K.L. Grantham, C.C. Kerr, D.P. Wilson. (2016)

AIDS, 30(9):1481-1482 [PDF]

In the interests of time: improving HIV allocative efficiency modeling via optimal time-varying allocations

A.J. Shattock, C.C. Kerr, R.M. Stuart, E. Masaki, N. Fraser, C. Benedikt, M. Gorgens, D.P. Wilson, R.T. Gray. (2016)

J Int AIDS Society, 19:20627 [PDF]

Projecting the epidemiological effect, cost-effectiveness and transmission of HIV drug resistance in Vietnam associated with viral load monitoring strategies

Q.D. Pham, D.P. Wilson, T.V. Nguyen, N.T. Do, L.X. Truong, L.T. Nguyen, L. Zhang. (2016)

J Antimicrobial Chemotherapy, 71(5):1367-1379 [PDF]


The funding landscape for HIV in Asia and the Pacific

R.M. Stuart, E. Lief, B. Donald, D. Wilson, D.P. Wilson. (2015)

J Int AIDS Society, 18:20004 [PDF]

Sustainable HIV Treatment in Africa through Viral Load-Informed Differentiated Care

Working Group on Modelling of ART Monitoring Strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa (A. Phillips, A. Shroufi, L. Vojnov, J. Cohn, T. Roberts, T. Ellman, K. Bonner, C. Rousseau, G. Garnett, V. Cambiano, F. Nakagawa, D. Ford, L. Bansi-Matharu, A. Miners, J. Lundgren, J. Eaton, R. Parkes-Rotanshi, Z. Katz, D. Maman, N. Ford, M. Vitoria, M. Doherty, D. Dowdy, B. Nichols, M. Murtagh, M. Wareham, K. Palamountain, C.C. Musanhu, W. Stevens, D. Katzenstein, A. Ciaranello, R. Barnabas, S. Braithwaite, E. Bendavid, K.J. Nathoo, D. van de Vijver, D. Wilson, C. Holmes, A. Bershteyn, S. Walker, E. Raizes, I. Jani, L. Nelson, R. Peeling, F. Terris-Prestholt, J. Murungu, T. Mutasa-Apollo, T. Hallett, P. Revill). (2015)

Nature, 7580(528):S68-S76 [PDF]

Can we know in advance whether models will get it right?

D.P. Wilson, C.C. Kerr. (2015)

The Lancet Global Health, 3(10):e577-578 [PDF]

Re-orienting the HIV response in Niger towards sex work interventions: from better evidence to targeted and expanded practice

Fraser N, Kerr CC, Harouna Z, Alhousseini Z, Cheikh N, Gray R, Shattock A, Wilson DP, Haacker M, Shubber Z, Masaki E, Karamoko D, Görgens M (2015)

JAIDS, 68:S213–S220 [PDF]

Scaling up HIV treatment for MSM in Bangkok: what does it take? -- a modelling and costing study

Zhang L, Phanuphak N, Henderson K, Nonenoy S, Srikaew S, Shattock A, Kerr CC, Omune B, van Griensven F, Sutayut Osornprasop S, Robert Oelrichs R, Ananworanich J, Wilson DP (2015)

Lancet HIV, 2:e200–07 [PDF]

Optima: a model for HIV epidemic analysis, program prioritization, and resource optimization

Kerr CC, Stuart RM, Gray RT, Shattock A, Fraser-Hurt N, Benedikt C, Haacker M, Berdnikov M, Mahmood AM, Jaber SA, Gorgens M, Wilson DP (2015)

JAIDS, 69(3): 365-376 [PDF]

The cost-effectiveness of harm reduction

D.P. Wilson, B. Donald, A.J. Shattock, D. Wilson, N. Fraser-Hurt. (2015)

Int J Drug Policy, 26(S1):S5-S11 [PDF]


Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models

Eaton JW, Menzies NA, Stover J, Cambiano V, Chindelevitch L, Cori A, Hontelez JAC, Humair S, Kerr CC, Klein DJ, Mishra S, Mitchell KM, Nichols BE, Vickerman P, Bärnighausen T, Bershteyn A, Bloom DE, Boily M-C, Chang ST, Cohen T, Dodd PJ, Fraser C, Gopalappa C, Lundgren J, Martin NK, Mountain E, Pham QD, Pickles M, Phillips A, Platt L, Pretorius C, Prudden HJ, Salomon JA, van de Vijver DAMC, Wagner BG, White RG, Wilson DP, Zhang L, Bandford J, Meyer-Rath G, Remme M, Revill P, Sangrujee N, Terris-Prestholt F, Doherty M, Easterbrook P, Hirnschall G, Hallett TB (2014)

The Lancet Global Health 2:e23-34 [PDF] [appendix]

Cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy expansion strategies in Vietnam

D.A. Tran, D.P. Wilson, L. Zhang, A. Shakeshaft, A.D. Ngo, C. Doran. (2014)

AIDS Patient Care and STDs, Jul;28(7):365-71 [PDF]

Reply to PrEP cost-effectiveness

K. Schneider, R.T. Gray, D.P. Wilson. (2014)

Clinical Infectious Diseases, 59 (1):141 [PDF]

Spending of HIV resources in Asia and Eastern Europe: systematic review reveals the need to shift funding allocations towards priority populations

A.P. Craig, H.H. Thein, L. Zhang, R.T. Gray, K. Henderson, D. Wilson, M. Gorgens, D.P. Wilson. (2014)

Journal of the International AIDS Society, 17:18822 [PDF]

How should HIV programmes respond to evidence for the benefits of earlier treatment initiation? A combined analysis of twelve mathematical models

J.W. Eaton, N.A. Menzies, J. Stover, V. Cambiano, L. Chindelevitch, A. Cori, J.A.C. Hontelez, S. Humair, C.C. Kerr, D.J. Klein, S. Mishra, K.M. Mitchell, B.E. Nichols, P. Vickerman, R. Bakker, T. Bärnighausen, A. Bershteyn, D.E. Bloom, M.-C. Boily, S.T. Chang, T. Cohen, P.J. Dodd, C. Fraser, C. Gopalappa, J. Lundgren, N.K. Martin, E. Mikkelsen, E. Mountain, Q.D. Pham, M. Pickles, A. Phillips, L. Platt, C. Pretorius, H.J. Prudden J.A. Salomon, D.A.M.C. van de Vijver, S.J. de Vlas B.G. Wagner, R.G. White, D.P. Wilson, L. Zhang, J. Blandford, G. Meyer-Rath, M. Remme, P. Revill, N. Sangrujee, F. Terris-Prestholt, M. Doherty, N. Shaffer, P.J. Easterbrook, G. Hirnschall, T.B. Hallett (2014)

Lancet Global Health, 2:e23-34 [PDF]

Predicting the population impact of increased HIV testing and treatment in Australia

J. Jansson, C.C. Kerr, D.P. Wilson. (2014)

Sexual Health, 11:146–154 [PDF]


A cost-effectiveness analysis of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis for men who have sex with men in Australia

K. Schneider, R.T. Gray, D.P. Wilson. (2013)

Clinical Infectious Diseases, 58(7):1027-1034 [PDF]

HIV service capacity: identifying current and future areas of clinical shortage

K.A. Mallitt, J. Jansson, H. Wand, L. Crooks, D.P. Wilson. (2013)

Sexual Health, 11(1):17-23 [PDF]

HIV antiretroviral prophylaxis for injecting drug users

A.P. Craig, R. Gray, J. Jansson, D.P. Wilson. (2013)

The Lancet, 382:854-855 [PDF]


The potential cost and benefits of raltegravir in simplified second-line therapy among HIV infected patients in Nigeria and South Africa

K. Schneider, C. Nwizu, R. Kaplan, J. Anderson, D.P. Wilson, S. Emery, D.A. Cooper, M.A. Boyd. (2012)

PLoS One, 8(2):e54435 [PDF]

Understanding the modes of transmission model of new HIV infection and its use in prevention planning

K.K. Case, P.D. Ghys, E. Gouws, J.W. Eaton, A. Borquez, J. Stover, P. Cuchi, L.J. Abu-Raddad, G.P. Garnett, T.B. Hallett on behalf of the HIV Modelling Consortium (R. Atun, B. Auvert, N. Bacaer, T. Barnighau¬sen, A. Bershteyn, M.-C. Boily, W. Delva, P. Eckhoff, A. Foss, J. Heijne, D.J. Klein, N. Low, C.M. Lowndes, S. Mishra, C. Pretorius, A. Welte, P. White, B. Williams, D. Wilson, D.P Wilson, B. Zaba, H. Prudden). (2012)

Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 90:831-838

Demand for HIV clinical services is increasing in Australia but supply is decreasing

K.A. Mallitt, J. Jansson, L. Crooks, D. McGuigan, H. Wand, D.P. Wilson. (2012)

Sexual Health, 10(1):43-46 [PDF]

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Models, Data, and Questions toward Evidence-Based Decision-Making

The HIV Modelling Consortium Treatment as Prevention Editorial Writing Group (T. Barnighausen, S. Becker, E. Bendavid, A. Bershteyn, J. Blandford, M.-C. Boily, D. Burns, V. Cambiano, M.S. Cohen, I. Cremin, W. Delva, C. Dye, J.W. Eaton, M. Egger, C. Fraser, N. Galai, G. Garnett, P.D. Ghys, T.B. Hallett, L. Heaton, C.B. Holmes, J. Hontelez, B. Jewell, O. Keiser, D. Klein, V. Lima, E. Long, R. Lyerla, C. Marais, F. Meng, G. Meyer-Rath, W.C. Miller, N. Muraguri, B.E. Nichols, K.R. Nigmatulina, M. Over, N. Padian, A. Phillips, C. Pretorius, C. Rousseau, J. Salomon, N. Sangrujee, D. Serwadda, F. Tanser, J.F. Vesga, P. Vickerman, D. Walker, R. Wang, A. Welte, R.G. White, B. Williams, D.P. Wilson, D. Wilson, B. Zaba). (2012)

PLoS Medicine, 9(7):e1001259 [PDF]

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of needle-syringe programs in Australia.

Kwon JA, Anderson J, Kerr CC, Thein H-H, Zhang L, Iversen J, Dore GJ, Kaldor JM, Law MG, Maher L, Wilson D (2012)

AIDS 26(17):2201-10 [PDF] [appendix]

Projected demographic profile of people living with HIV in Australia: planning for an older generation

J. Jansson, D.P. Wilson. (2012)

PLoS One, 7(8):e38334 [PDF]

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Principles of Good HIV Epidemiology Modelling For Public Health Decision-Making in All Modes of Prevention and Evaluation

W. Delva, D.P. Wilson, L. Abu-Raddad, M. Gorgens, D. Wilson, T.B. Hallett, A. Welte. (2012)

PLoS Medicine, 9(7):e1001239 [PDF]

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Natural experiments highlight limits of antiretroviral treatment as HIV prevention

D.P. Wilson. (2012)

PLoS Medicine, 9(7):e1001231 [PDF]


Expected epidemiological impacts of introducing an HIV vaccine in Thailand: a model-based analysis

K. Schneider, C.C. Kerr, A. Hoare, D.P. Wilson. (2011)

Vaccine, 29:6086-6091 [PDF]

Expected epidemiological impact of the introduction of a partially effective HIV vaccine among men who have sex with men in Australia

R.T. Gray, M.H. Ghaus, A. Hoare, D.P. Wilson. (2011)

Vaccine, 29:6125-6129 [PDF]

Economic evaluation of monitoring virologic responses to antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected children in resource-limited settings

K. Schneider, T. Puthanakit, S. Kerr, M.G. Law, D.A. Cooper, B. Donovan, N. Phanuphak, V. Sirisanthana, J. Ananworanich, J. Ohata, D.P. Wilson. (2011)

AIDS, 25:1143-1151 [PDF]


How low can you go: The impact of a modestly effective HIV vaccine compared with male circumcision

J.M. Kaldor, D.P. Wilson. (2010)

AIDS, 24:2573-2578 [PDF]

An HIV epidemic is ready to emerge in the Philippines

A.C. Farr, D.P. Wilson. (2010)

Journal of the International AIDS Society, 13:16 [PDF]


What impact might the economic crisis have on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia?

R.T. Gray, K.J. Heymer, A. Hoare, J.A. Kwon, H.H. Thein, N. Lote, P. Siba, S. Saramony, V. Saphonn, H. Worth, J.M. Kaldor, D.P. Wilson. (2009)

Current HIV Research, 7:656-665 [PDF]

Cost-effectiveness of adult circumcision for HIV prevention in men who have sex with men in a resource-rich setting

J.S. Anderson, D.P. Wilson, D.J. Templeton, A.E. Grulich, R. Carter, J.M. Kaldor. (2009)

Journal of Infectious Disease, 200:1803-1812 [PDF]

The impact of needle and syringe programs on HIV and HCV transmissions in injecting drug users in Australia: a model-based analysis

J.A. Kwon, J. Iversen, L. Maher, M.G. Law, D.P. Wilson. (2009)

J AIDS, 51(4):462-469 [PDF]


Relation between HIV viral load and infectiousness? A model-based analysis

D.P. Wilson, M.G. Law, A.E. Grulich, D.A. Cooper, J.M. Kaldor. (2008)

The Lancet, 372:314-20 [PDF]

The paradoxical effects of using antiretroviral-based microbicides to control HIV epidemics

D.P. Wilson, P.M. Coplan, M.A. Wainberg, S.M. Blower. (2008)

PNAS, 105(28):9835-40 [PDF]

Mathematical models and health economic aspects of microbicides

D.P. Wilson, P.M Coplan. (2008)

Current Opinion in HIV and AIDS, 3:587-592 [PDF]

Using mathematical modelling to help explain the differential increase in HIV incidence in New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland: the importance of other STIs

A. Hoare, D.P. Wilson, D.G. Regan, J. Kaldor, M.G. Law. (2008)

Sexual Health, 5:169-187 [PDF]


How far will we need to go to reach HIV-infected people in rural South Africa?

D.P. Wilson, S.M. Blower. (2007)

BMC Medicine, 5(1), 16 [PDF]


Predicting the epidemiological impact of antiretroviral allocation strategies in KwaZulu-Natal: The effect of the urban-rural divide

D.P. Wilson, J.O. Kahn, S.M. Blower. (2006)

PNAS, 103(38):14228-14233 [PDF]

Rational choices for allocating antiretrovirals in Africa: treatment equity, epidemiological efficiency and feasibility

D.P. Wilson, S.M. Blower. (2006)

PLoS Medicine, 3(3), e160 [PDF]


Allocating Antiretrovirals in South Africa: Using Modeling to Determine Treatment Equity

D.P. Wilson, S.M. Blower. (2005)

PLoS Medicine, 2(6):563-564 [PDF]

Designing Equitable Antiretroviral Allocation Strategies in Resource-Constrained Countries

D.P. Wilson, S.M. Blower. (2005)

PLoS Medicine, 2(2):132-141 [PDF]

Book chapters

The next generation of decision science analytics: Optima. In Tackling the world’s fastest growing HIV epidemic: Gateways to efficient and effective HIV responses in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

D.P. Wilson, M. Gorgens. (2019 in press)

The World Bank Group, Washington DC, USA

The not-so-black box: Optima HIV methodology and approach. In Tackling the world’s fastest growing HIV epidemic: Gateways to efficient and effective HIV responses in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

C.C. Kerr, R.M. Stuart, D.J. Kedziora, A. Brown, R. Abeysuriya, G.L. Chadderdon, A. Nachesa, D.P. Wilson. (2017)

The World Bank Group, Washington DC, USA

See the bigger picture: Resource optimization tools to inform HBP design. In What’s In, What’s Out? Designing Benefits for Universal Health Coverage, pp. 214-233

M. Gorgens, J. Petravic, D.J. Wilson, D.P. Wilson. (2017)

Center for Global Development, Washington DC, USA

Technical reports

Please click on a disease area for the corresponding technical reports: