Optima | Using Optima
We were fortunate to be able to use this analysis for making the key decision regarding funding distribution between programs targeting the different key affected populations and strengthening the interventions that will be more effective for prevention and control of the HIV epidemic in Georgia. Ketevan Stvilia, HIV program manager – National Center for Disease Control and Public Health, Georgia

Several countries have used Optima analyses to inform their national HIV strategies or to develop concept notes for the Global Fund. Optima is also used in supporting the World Bank with their in-country HIV allocative efficiency analyses.

Technical Reports

2018   |  2017   |  2016   |  2015   |  2014   |  2013   |  2012   |  2011   |  2010   |  2009   |  2008

Optima HIV has been applied in over 40 countries across sub-Saharan Africa, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Asia and the Pacific, Middle East and North Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean, with many studies resulting in shifts in policy or programmatic emphases. Below is a sample of case studies from the applications of Optima HIV in Sudan and in Belarus.

Case study: Sudan

In the first half of 2014, the Sudan National AIDS Programme reviewed its National Strategic Programme on HIV and AIDS while at the same time preparing a concept note for submission to the Global Fund for the 2015-17 grant cycle. At this time, the Government of Sudan approached the World Bank with a request to conduct an allocative efficiency analysis to inform the prioritization of the national HIV response and the development of the concept note. These analyses, conducted by the World Bank and using the Optima HIV model, recommended the country increase the focus of its HIV response to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and prevention for key populations including female sex workers (FSW) and men who have sex with men (MSM).

With the same amount of money, this strategic shift in investment was projected to reduce new cumulative infections by 37% by 2020. If more strategic allocations were maintained up to 2030, an estimated additional 49,000 new HIV infections and 14,000 HIV-related deaths could be averted.

When budgets were assigned for 2015-2017, the total amount of funding was less than 2013 levels. However, due to the optimization results, more funding was shifted towards programs targeting key populations, predicted to lead to a reduction of total new infections.

Case study: Belarus

The HIV epidemic in Belarus was still growing in 2015, mostly affecting key populations. The national HIV program set the following 2020 targets to:

  • Reduce HIV incidence by 45%
  • Reduce HIV-related deaths by 65%
  • Reduce mother to child transmission (MTCT) to below 1%
  • Findings from the Optima HIV analysis identified recommendations for prioritizing reallocation of funds to:

  • Scale-up antiretroviral therapy (ART)
  • Scale-up HIV services for people who inject drugs (PWID)
  • Increase spending on high-impact programs, such as prevention for key populations

  • This figure illustrates the redistribution of 2013 spending to scale up ART, opiate substitution therapy, and needle-syringe programs. It was estimated that this could lead to a 7% reduction in new HIV infections and a 25% reduction in HIV-related deaths. To achieve national targets, it was estimated that a tripling of 2013 HIV investment would be necessary.

    Technical reports

    2018

    Optimizing Investments in the National HIV Response of Mexico

    Gutierrez C., Lavadenz F., Macias C., Petravic J., Lavadenz L. (2018)

    The World Bank Group

    Optimizando la Inversión del Plan de Respuesta de Colombia al VIH

    Gutierrez C., Stuart R.M., Wilson D.P., Lavadenz F., Reporter I., Kerr C. (2018)

    The World Bank Group

    2017

    Allocating HIV Funding Efficiently in Myanmar : Analyses Using the Optima HIV Model

    Optima Consortium for Decision Science, the University of Bern, the University of New South Wales, and the Burnet Institute, UNAIDS, Myanmar Ministry of Health and Sports, the World Bank Group (2017)

    The World Bank Group

    Allocative Efficiency Analysis (HIV) 2015-2030 for Karnataka & Punjab — India

    Public Health Foundation of India in collaboration with National AIDS Control Organisation, National Institute of Medical Statistics, and Burnet Institute (2017)

    The World Bank Group

    Optimización de las inversiones para la respuesta al VIH en Perú

    Prieto L., Montañez V., Petravic J., Reporter I., Medici A. (2017)

    The World Bank Group

    Optimizing Investments for a Sustainable and Efficient HIV Response in Togo

    University College London, Burnet Institute, University of New South Wales (2017)

    The World Bank Group for the Government of Togo

    Optimización de la inversión en VIH/SIDA en Argentina

    Calvo N., Lavadenz F., Reporter I., Petravic J., Pantanali C., Lavadenz, C. (2017)

    The World Bank Group

    2016

    Ending AIDS in Johannesburg: An analysis of the status and scale-up towards HIV treatment and prevention targets.

    Burnet Institute, Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2016)

    The World Bank Group for the Gauteng Province Department of Health and South African Department of Health

    Optimizing Investments for a Sustainable and Efficient HIV Response in Senegal: Findings from an HIV Allocative Efficiency Study

    Government of Senegal, UNAIDS, the Optima Consortium for Decision Science, the University of Bern, the University of New South Wales, the Kirby Institute, and the Burnet Institute (2016)

    The World Bank Group

    HIV Investment in Cote d’Ivoire: Optimized allocation of HIV resources for a sustainable and efficient HIV response

    University of Bern, University of New South Wales, Burnet Institute, and The World Bank (2016)

    The World Bank Group

    Optimizing investments in Bulgaria’s HIV response

    University College London, Burnet Institute, University of New South Wales (2016)

    The World Bank Group, Global Fund, UINAIDS, and UNDP for the Government of Bulgaria

    Optimizing investments in Belarus for the National HIV Response

    Atroshchanka O., Fisenka A., Ilyenkova V., Đurić P., Gray R., Benedikt C., Masaki E., Obst M., Kokiashvili D., Maxim C., Sakvarelidze G., Zhang S., Hailevich R., Manova M., Hamelmann C., Kerr C., Stuart R., Wilson D.P., Görgens M., Nguyen S.N., Wilson D. (2016)

    The World Bank Group [PDF]

    Optimizing Investments in the Kyrgyz Republic’s HIV Response

    Maitieva V., Ianbukhtina L., Mambetov T., Bashmakova L., Sarybaeva M., Đurić P., Shattock A., Benedikt C., Masaki E., Obst M., Soorombaeva D., Abarbekova A., Kazizova M., Irbe S., Kokiashvili D., Mdivani N., Zhang S., Hailevich R., Manova M., Scutelniciuc O., Hamelmann C., Macauley J., Stuart R., Kerr C., Wilson D.P., Patel R., Nguyen S.N., Görgens M. (2016)

    The World Bank Group

    Value for money in Ukraine’s HIV response: strategic investment and improved efficiency

    Kuzin I., Sharapka K., Gvozdeva E., Kerr C., Stuart R., Masaki E., Goroshko A., Benedikt C., Nizova N., Wilson D.P., Boyko J., Belli P., Görgens M., Wilson D., Manova M., Hailevich R., Tyszko J., Đurić P., Hamelmann c., Zhang S., Sakvarelidze G., Görgens M., Belli P., Doroshenko O., Fraser N., Garcia R.R., Shubber Z. (2016)

    The World Bank Group

    Optimizing Investments in Georgia’s HIV Response

    Asatiani A., Baliashvili D., Khonelidze I., Ruadze E., Stvilia K., Tsereteli M., Chokoshvili O., Haghparast-Bidgoli H., Grobicki L., Panovska-Griffiths J., Skordis-Worrall J., Benedikt C., Kerr C., Stuart R., Wilson D.P., Görgens M., Masaki E., Hailevic R., Manova M., Kokiashvili D., Loncar D., Sakanyan T., Zhang S., Đurić P., Hamelmann C. (2016)

    The World Bank Group

    Optimizing HIV Investments in Armenia

    Grigoryan S., Grigoryan T., Hovhannisyan R., Papoyan A., Kelly S., Benedikt C., Cuadros D.F., Masaki E., Obst M., Grishechkina V., Kokiashvili D., Zhang S., Hailevich R., Manova M., Đurić P., Hamelmann C., Kerr C., Stuart R., Wilson D.P., Nguyen S.N., Görgens M., Heard W. (2016)

    The World Bank Group

    Optimizing investments in Kazakhstan’s HIV response

    Baiserkin B.S., Bokazhanova A., Ganina L.U., Kalinich N.F., Kazimova A.A., Petrenko I.I., Yelizarieva A.V., Đurić P., Shattock A., Benedikt C., Masaki E., Obst M., Farcy N., Kokiashvili D., Vinichenko T., Zhang S., Hailevich R., Manova M., Scutelniciuc O., Hamelmann C., Kerr C., Stuart R.M., Wilson D.P., Nguyen S.N., Görgens M., Wilson D., Patel R., Bortman M., Zhumadil B. (2016)

    The World Bank Group

    Science addressing drugs and HIV: State of the Art: 2nd Scientific Statement

    Des Jarlais D., Bastos F., Benedikt C., Feelemyer J., Hayashi K., Kelly S., Kerr T., Lim H., Loh J., Milloy M.J.S., Shoptaw S., Williams A., Wilson D.P., Wilson D., Beg M., Hariga F. (2016)

    UNODC [PDF]

    Allocative and implementation efficiency in HIV prevention and treatment for people who inject drugs

    Wilson D., Benedikt C., Kelly S., Wilson D.P. (2016)

    UNODC Science Addressing Drugs and HIV: State of the Art Scientific Consensus for High Level Segment of the 59th session of the Commission on Narcotic Drugs [PDF]

    Optimizing Investments in the National HIV Responses of Indonesia and Thailand: a Report for World Health Organization South-east Asia Regional Office

    Grantham K., Reagan D., Law M., Wilson D.P. (2016)

    WHO [PDF]

    2015

    A Case Study on How Allocative Efficiency Analysis Supported by Mathematical Modelling Changed HIV Investment in Sudan. From Analysis to Action

    The World Bank Group (2015)

    The World Bank Group

    Optimizing Investments in Moldova’s HIV Response

    University of New South Wales, Burnet Institute (2015)

    The World Bank Group, Global Fund, UNAIDS, and UNDP for the Government of Moldova

    Optimizing investments in Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia’s HIV response

    University College London, Burnet Institute, University of New South Wales (2015)

    The World Bank Group for the Government of FYR Macedonia [PDF]

    Modelling an Optimised Investment Approach for Uzbekistan: sustainable financing of National HIV responses

    Wilson D.P., Kerr C., Đurić P., Hamelmann C. (2015)

    UNDP for the Republic of Uzbekistan [PDF]

    Zambia’s HIV Response: Prioritised and strategic allocation of HIV resources for impact and sustainability (findings from the HIV allocative efficiency study)

    Masaki E., Fraser N., Haacker M., Obst M., Wootton R., Sunkutu R., Gorgens M., Gray R.T., Shattock A., Kerr C.C., Wilson D.P. (2015)

    The World Bank Group and UNSW Australia for the Government of Zambia

    Investing for Results: How Asia Pacific countries can invest for ending AIDS. High-level panel for AIDS Funding Landscape in Asia and the Pacific

    Shattock A., Gray R., Donald B., Stuart R., Lief E., Zhang L., Wilson D. (2015)

    Released at UNESCAP 2015, Bangkok. Comments by International AIDS Economics Network [PDF]

    2014

    Sudan’s HIV response: Value for money in a low-level HIV epidemic; Findings from the HIV allocative efficiency study

    Fraser N., Benedikt C., Obst M., Masaki E., Gorgens M., Stuart R., Shattock A., Gray R.T., Kerr C.C., Wilson D.P. (2014)

    The World Bank Group and UNSW Australia

    Optimizing allocation of resources for HIV/AIDS responses: presented to the United Nations General Assembly

    Wilson D.P., Stuart R., Shattock A., Gray R., Kelly S. (New York, September 2014)

    UNAIDS World AIDS Day report (page 36) [PDF]

    HIV Mathematical Modelling to Support Swaziland's Development of its HIV Investment Case

    Kelly S., Shattock A., Kerr C.C., Gama T., Nhlabatsi N., Zagatti G., Harimurti P., Wilson D.P., Gorgens M. (2014)

    The World Bank Group and UNSW for the Government of Swaziland

    HIV resource needs, availabilities and gaps across ASEAN countries

    Wilson D.P., Shattock A., Gray R. (Hanoi, Vietnam; September 2014)

    Presented to the ASEAN Health Ministers Meeting [PDF]

    Niger’s HIV response: Targeted investments for a health future. Findings from the HIV allocative efficiency and financial sustainability study

    Fraser N., Cheikh N., Haacker M., Masaki E., Karamoko D., Gorgens M., Frescura L., Konan C., Kerr C.C., Gray R.T., Shattock A., Wilson D.P. (2014)

    The World Bank Group

    Ukraine HIV Program Efficiency Study: Can Ukraine improve value for money in HIV service delivery?

    Wilson D.P., Razali K., Henderson K., Maher L., Ellard J., Shattock A., Semini I., Masaki E., Gorgens M. (2014)

    The World Bank Group

    HIV Investment in Armenia: Analysis & Recommendations

    Kerr C.C., Wilson D.P. (2014)

    UNAIDS[PDF]

    Modelling an optimized investment approach for Tajikistan

    Duric P., Hammelmann C., Wilson D.P., Kerr C.C. (2014)

    UNDP [PDF-English] [PDF-русский]

    Evaluation of a Decade of DFID and World Bank Supported HIV and AIDS Programmes in Vietnam from 2003 to 2012

    Zhang L., Maher L., Pham D.Q., Higgs P., Anh N.D., Duc B.H. Shattock A., Hoa D.M., Wilson D.P. (2014)

    The World Bank Group

    2013

    HIV Resource Needs, Efficient Allocation and Resource Mobilization for the Republic of Belarus

    Wilson D.P., Yakusik A., Kerr C.C., Avila C. (2013)

    UNAIDS and UNDP [PDF]

    Return on Investment of HIV Prevention in Vietnam

    Zhang L., Pham Q.D., Do M.H., Kerr C.C., Wilson D.P. (2013)

    The World Bank Group

    2012

    Assessment of the allocation of HIV funding in Indonesia.

    Gray R.T., Reyes J., Nadjib M., Harimurti P., Wilson D.P. (2012)

    The World Bank Group

    2011

    The Papua New Guinea HIV Model: explaining the past, describing the present, and forecasting the future of the HIV epidemic in PNG

    Gray R.T., Murray J.M., Wilson D.P., Vallely A., Kaldor J. (2011)

    The Kirby Institute, The University of New South Wales [PDF]
    [Technical Appendix] [Software Manual]

    Evaluation of the epidemiological impact of harm reduction programs on HIV in Vietnam

    Wilson D.P., Loo V., Zhang L., Thein H.H., Gray R., Kwon A. (2011)

    Vietnam Administration for HIV/AIDS Control and The World Bank Group [PDF]

    The HIV in Indonesia Model (HIM)

    Wilson D.P., Riono P., Kerr C., Kwon A., Zhang L., Kaldor J., Sutrisna A., Farid M.N., Hadi N. (2011)

    University of Indonesia [PDF] [Software Manual]

    2010

    Epidemiology and modeling report on HIV/AIDS in the Philippines

    Farr A.C., Wilson D.P. (2010)

    Technical Report for the World Bank Group [PDF]

    2009

    Evaluation of the potential impact of the global economic crisis on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia (prepared for AusAID)

    Wilson D.P., Gray R., Heymer K.J., Hoare A., Kwon J., Thein H.H., Worth H., Kaldor J. (2009)

    National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, University of New South Wales [PDF]

    2008

    Mathematical models to investigate recent trends in HIV notifications among men who have sex with men in Australia

    Wilson D.P., Hoare A., Regan D.G., Wand H., Law M.G. (2008)

    National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, University of New South Wales [PDF]